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Week 4 the Eagles faced an interesting predicament because they are entering the week 1-2 to play the 3-0 Green Bay Packers on the road at Lambeau Field. The Eagles are coming off a two game losing streak where they saw games slip out of their hands against the Falcons and Lions. Many analysts expected the Eagles to go 2-1 or 3-0 and the Packers would be their first real challenge. They were right that the Packers are the first real challenges, but how can the Eagles turn their fortunes after failing the practice tests against Falcons and Lions. Desean is known to have a longer term injury its being called an abdominal injury but we all know how that saga turns out (this is also the week where he could have gotten his surgery and likely had a chance to be back for the playoffs but he opted to therapy instead).
My rule of thumb for NFL team's to make it to the playoffs is go on at least one win streak, never lose back to back games and hang up the helmets if you lose 3 games in a row. The difference between winning and losing against the Packers is 1-3 teams have about a 14% chance of making the playoffs, 2-2 have a 36% that's a big differece. So, as a fan going into the Thursday Night game in Green bay I'm worried this season could be over before it really starts.
Green Bay's passing attack is very vertical because they have a gunslinger in Aaron Rodgers and we all know how passing has gone for the Eagles defense this year. But on these Thursday Night games there's still always a gut feeling that the Eagles can win. I call this the NFL Factor, the NFL is a weird league and teams that should beat other teams frequently lose to inferior teams. But the other feeling I have is Doug Pederson is 1 year removed from a Super Bowl and so far this season he looked like a coach that was new in the NFL, that had to turn around. Carson Wentz was 1 year removed from his should have been MVP season and he looked like he wasn't comfortable in an NFL pocket. Things had to turn around for this team.
The Game
And it did. The Green Bay Packers posed to be a tough opponent mostly because their main running game was taken away from them by a helmet to helmet hit on the first play by Derek Barnett, who didn't need to be in the play as Jamaal Williams was already stopped, so Aaron Rodgers ends up dropping back 53 times for 422 yards he had 2 touchdowns and 2 Sacks and 1 fumble, which was a beautiful outside move by Derek Barnett he gets around the left tackle and swoops into the back field to knock Rodgers and the ball to the ground. There was also 1 INT by Rodgers which bounced to the hand of Nigel Bradham in the End Zone to seal the game with just under 20 seconds left. Rodgers ends up being the packers leading rusher though. Davante Adams torched the secondary, getting 180 yards, I don't have a stat on this but I think the Eagles might be one of the only teams to win 2 games where they gave up 170+ yards to a receiver. The Eagles defense made two goal line stands at the end of the game to hold off the Packers from tying the game, now this wasn't a classical goal line stand but it was similar to Seattle vs NE in Superbowl 49. Aaron Rodgers threw the ball 5 of the 6 plays from inside the 3 yard line. Questionable play calling, but it helped get the Eagles the victory.
And there was something happening on the Eagles offensive side of the ball that hadn't so far this season, they had a running game plan. All week long on the radio waves people were calling into Philly Sports begging the Eagles to run the ball against the Packers because Jordan Howard is wasting away on the sidelines. I don't know if Doug was listening to the radio stations or he just had the same thought, but the fans were right, they needed to run. Jordan Howard had two touchdowns rushing and a couple long runs, one being a 19 yarder where he breaks through the middle of the line. He added a 20 yard TD reception on a nice wheel route that Wentz hit him in stride. Jordan Howard also had a huge run in the 4th quarter after the Eagles stopped the Packers on the one yard line. They were in their own end zone and couldn't give up a safety and he found 10 yards up the middle then another 7 to get them a cushion and eat up 6 minutes of game time, they flipped the field and pinned the Packers at the 11 yard line thanks to that drive. Miles Sanders didn't get a touchdown but he had 72 yards. Miles Sanders hit the holes hard this game looking like a seasoned pro, this is the game where he finally starting hitting the holes before looking to cut to the outside. Thats a sign of a good NFL runningback, you don't want them trying to beat everyone to the outside, because its just not going to happen like it does in college. Miles also proved why they put him in the kick returner role he had a couple of nice returns one that started the Eagles on the Packers 39 yard line. Alshon did play in this game and got 1 touchdown but only 38 yards. No receiver crossed 50 yards, Ertz had 65 though and after Jeffrey at 38, Howard 28, Goedert 18 and 11 to Hollins, Agholor had 1 target and was a non-factor eventhough he played 90% of the snaps.
Wentz had a great game too, he went 16/27 with 167 yards, 3 touchdowns and most importantly no sacks or interceptions. Those touchdowns went to Alshon in the red zone in tight coverage, Goedert also in the redzone and then Howard on the wheel route for 20 yards, just on the edge of the redzone. So, needless to say getting 176 yards on the ground, no sacks and no INTs the offensive line had their best game of the season. They only allowed 5 pressures on 12+ blitzes. Against Detroit the line gave up 13 QB pressures. The thing that doesn't make sense to me is all of this is on short rest, and against a superior team.The Eagles won though, 34-27, went to 2-2, avoided the 3 game skid and are 1 game behind the Cowboys as they lost their first game in a close battle in New Orleans.
Reaction
As a fan following this Thursday Night game you have just as many questions heading into week 5 as you did going into the game. But they're slightly different. Why did it take until week 4 to focus on the running game, when you have 2 great backs and quote the best offensive line unqoute? And to top that off why were you throwing so much when Mack Hollins was your number two receiver? The questions still remain why can't the Eagles stop a deep threat on the passing game, but the bend don't break defense worked again, even to the point of getting to stops on the 3 and 1 yard lines. If that doesn't define bend don't break nothing will. This team is unique they find ways to win games they don't belong having a lead in but lose games that shouldn't even be a question. Its frustrating as a fan, but isn't that what keeps us hooked? You never know what's going to happen.
From my couch, from my perspective this game was a statement I thought this showed Doug figured out they need to run the ball before passing with this team. Wentz can get the ball to players if he's not getting pressured but the only way to stop that pressure is to establish a running game. In this game I also saw Wentz hitting targets in tight spaces, the Green Bay defense really highlighted how little field Wentz has to play with. Go back and rewatch the offensive plays, the green bay defense at most is ever 20 yards deep from the line of scrimmage. Most of the action happens between the line and the first down marker. Nothing is going downfield which means Wentz needs to hit small windows. The average Eagles receiver last season had 3 yards of separation. Their best receiver was Agholor with 3.4 yards of separation which still was ranked 15th in the NFL last season according NextGenStats, the rest are well into the 40s when it comes to rank. Agholor extra space probably comes from his drop rate too. But regardless what I noticed most in this game is the efficiency Wentz has in tight spaces, when he has time. So, in 2020 I hope they do two things, first run the ball and maybe we have another running back coming yet, which makes sense since every offseason over the last 3 years Howie has traded or signed a veteran running back. second i want the offensive line to give wentz time. third and extra points I want a down field threat to stay healthy so Wentz doesn't only need to work in tight spaces in the mid range. If those 3 things happen maybe the debates will end on Wentz being a top 5 quarterback, because if he gets that he'll have no excuses not to be so we won't have to debate anymore.
During the off season GB Packers made a similar move of drafting a QB early in the draft, although the major difference is Rodgers is much older than Wentz. The solidified their Line with some big ten linemen, and grabbed up a midsize running back and a TE. Their offense seems to be the focus as always the Eagles play them in week 12 this year so I'll hold off my prediction for now, but the Packers improved and the Eagles barely beat them the season prior, I'll leave you with that.
In Week 4 the Eagles will be playing in San Francisco on Sunday Night football. San Francisco had a decent draft and got a DT in the first round in Kinlaw that will be a great addition, but if this line plays like they did against Green Bay I don't have a worry with him. They also picked up Aiyuk (eye you k) who will be able to run down the field on the Eagles. They brought back Breida, lost Joe Staley to retirement but brought in Trent Williams. With Nick Bosa and Kinlaw on the defensive side of the ball its going to come down to how the Offensive Line protects Wentz. The Eagles added defensive players to hold down the passing game that they added, but Jimmy G has a way to find holes in the zone just like Brady, with more targets he might just torch this defense. That doesn't mean its a definite loss though, I just don't see them pulling this game out, especially if they just beat Cincinati. So, I'm having the Eagles lose this one in heartbreak fashion 34-28, high scoring and they're going to be lucky to get out of the game healthy, which in itself will be a victory.
This Week's From a Fan's Perspective
There's a lot of talk still about Jason Peters coming back, Lesean Mccoy returning, going after Carlos Hyde which is now over, and then there's still the talk about Jadeveon Clowney, Everson Griffen and Jamal Adams came on to the fore front this weekend. My thoughts on it is lets gather talent as much as we can but lets not chase the good old days. Jason Peters did great for the team, if he falls to being available when camp comes around maybe bring him in check out his health keep the relationship there, but I want to stop depending on him. He's restricting the growth of young players like Andre Dillard, while I know this year Jason Peters may perform better than Andre Dillard, getting Dillard out there will make him perform better in the next season and the next. He's going to be here longer than Peters. Dillard is 24 years old.
Then LeSean an amazing back for the Eagles, and I feel bad for him his career was wasted when Chip Kelly rid the team of talent. But that doesn't mean we owe him and bring him back, he still hadn't done much the last couple of seasons in Buffalo. In fact, Boston Scott had similar averages to Lesean McCoy. Boston Scott is 25. Plus, we have Miles Sanders and Corey Clement guys who don't have much different skills from Lesean so he's not going to bring much to the table. Carlos Hyde would have been nice too, but there are is a ton of talent for cheaper. I know its unlikely to consistently find guys like Greg Ward and Boston Scott, but they're also not unique. In the NFL pool of players there is a ton of talent that is unscouted. If you get your scouts on the ground and you can find players like that the Eagles can save a lot of money especially in Skill positions. It really comes down to IQ and speed. If the player understands the game and has the skills either power or speed, then take a chance on them you can teach them the playbook. But a player like Lesean McCoy is not going to take this team to the next level in any way, he's just another distraction and another person that will be begging for targets, and someone who is fragile. I'm sick of the Eagles getting players with injury history.
And just look at Adrian Killins, he may make this team, he is an undrafted free agent who has the skill set the Eagles need. On the offensive side of the ball I'm not really looking to add veteran talent that is just a veteran. I want to add someone who is going to make an impact and fill a gap. For example look at Paul Richardson, he's still a free agent, he can help this passing game and you don't need to give up assets for him, he's also relatively young at 28. Or if you're looking at running back why not spend money on Davonta Freeman instead of Lesean McCoy? It just doesn't make sense to me to bring back players in their 30s just because they played for the Eagles before. I love Peters and Shady McCoy, but I love them in the past as Eagles, I don't want to ruin those memories.
On the Defensive side we still are looking for another edge rusher because everyone seemingly has given up on Derek Barnett, who is only 23 years old, has a super bowl ring and has made some impactful plays, one of which I covered in this episode where he strip sacked Rodgers just like BG did in the Super Bowl to Brady. He hasn't developed fully into the edger rusher we thought he would when he was getting compared to Reggie White, but he's still 23 years old. Reggie White's first season was when he was 24 years old. Give this guy some time. And remember Derek Barnett didn't come in starting right away. He started no games in his first season, and only 47% of the snaps, he got injured his second season and last season was his first full season as a starter. He got 6.5 sacks which isn't strikingly great, but he had 10 TFL and 26 QB pressures with 15 knockdowns. He gets pressure, and hopefully he can get a step or two faster and turn those knockdowns into sacks. But we don't need to sell the future to get a veteran player. The core of the Eagles the average age is 25. That covers 3-4 OLine positions, QB, Catch and Run RB, Hopefully a downfield threat in Reagor, TE. On Defense 2 corners and a safety and maybe a LB a couple DEs. This core is young and developing we will see growth over the next few years as they get experience, and if we don't thats when we should start chasing talent to give up our future assets.
This season is about the break out young player. The guy I think is most improtant to have a great season on the offensive side of the ball obviously is Wentz and we'll cover him in an upcoming perspective. But more important than Wentz I need to see progress from JJ Arcega-Whiteside. Show me that you can be an inkling of an Alshon to catch the ball when a jump ball is needed. On the defensive side of the ball Jalen Mill and Derek Barnett need to show me progress this year. Barnett does need to convert more of his pressures into sacks. Jalen Mills needs to become more of a shutdown secondary player that doesn't let stupid plays get by him. He rebranded himself with a new number and position lets see if he can make an impact.
I want to hear your thoughts what player is the key to the Eagles improving this year?
Tweet @fromafanpod with the hashtag #KeyBird2020 with your thoughts. Can't wait to hear from you.
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