Every week picks will be made on 3 NFL games that are locks against the spread (and sometimes moneyline). Further there will be discussion around some of the fantasy picks for daily fantasy teams. DISCLAIMER: THIS IS BY NO MEANS ADVICE ON WHAT YOU SHOULD DO WITH YOUR MONEY IT IS JUST FOR FUN. BET AT YOUR OWN RISK
Welcome to the 2020 season, or better known as 'WHAT THE COVID IS GOING ON?'. Hope you all have stayed safe, employed and sane during these wild times, but it's finally happening, we will have football tonight!
Since the Super Bowl, it has been a lull, in fact February was the last normal month we had.. so hopefully this is the beginning of normal times.
The first week of any season is difficult to find the picks of the week because we really don't know much about the teams. This year there was no preseason so we know even less. And a lot has changed..
13 teams this season have a different starting Quarterback in week 1 than week 1 in 2019. 5 teams have a new head coach.
1 team doesn't have a team name.
Teams can put players on IR for 3 weeks only so we are going to see a lot more roster moving.
We are going to have an interesting season, but here we go anyway....
Cleveland at Baltimore
Line: Baltimore -8 | Moneyline: Baltimore -372 Pick: Baltimore -8 CORRECT
According to scoresandodds.com 68% of the money is on Baltimore to cover, 84% is on Baltimore to outright win.
I really like Baltimore in this game because well Lamar Jackson. Cleveland has made some additions in the off season, but not nearly enough to keep up with Baltimore. Another indicator that Baltimore is going to cover is that in the Last 2 seasons when Cleveland has been an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 they are 6-7, last year they were 1-4; as a road underdog they're 6-6 last 2 years,1-3 last year; as a road underdog 7.5 to 10.5 they're 1-2 and 0-1, respectively. I just don't see Week 1 against Baltimore them figuring out how to win as an underdog on the road.
My confidence in this one is 80%.
Las Vegas at Carolina
Line: Carolina +3.5 | Moneyline: Carolina +150
Pick: Carolina +3.5 INCORRECT
Only 23% of the money is on Carolina right now, but I don't care. Matt Ruhle has stacked this team's defense and they're going to give up few points. I still have no faith in the Las Vegas Raiders. Plus we can expect Nelson Agholor to drop the game winning touchdown when he's wide open.
The numbers (which I understand are tough to judge with Cam gone and Ruhle as a new head coach) tells me that Carolina might win this one out right. In games with +3.5 to -3.5 Carolina is 7-5; At home not so good, 2-3 as a home dog. But like I said I like what Matt Ruhle did with this team and could see them winning this outright. The +150 though doesn't give me enough encouragement to not take 3.5 points.
More important than Carolina's numbers are Raider's, who's team is much unchanged from the previous season. They are 6-10 in Road games and 0-2 on the road as a favorite.
My confidence here is 66%. (money-line confidence is 75%)
Pittsburgh at New York Giants
Line: Giants +5.5 | Moneyline: Giants +190; Pittsburgh -240
Pick: Pittsburgh -5.5 CORRECT
79% of the money is currently on Pittsburgh to cover. Pittsburgh didn't really add anyone on offense that will turn heads but they have Big Ben back healthy. Even though he's getting up there he still is a smart, talented quarterback. Dan Jones and Saquon will put up a fight here but I just don't see them pulling off the week 1 win.
Giants as a home underdog the last 2 seasons is 1-10. When the spread is 3.5 to 7 they are 0-4. In home games in general they are 3-12 the last 2 seasons. Pittsburgh as a road favorite isn't very promising as they're only 1-4, but when they're favored in a game by 3.5 to 9.5 they're 4-3. On Monday Night they're 2-1.
My confidence here is 50% in covering.
Survivor Pool Pick of the week: Pittsburgh CORRECT
See above, I have only 50% confidence in them covering, but 100% confidence in them winning. The other teams that are on the radar this week are Buffalo, Indianapolis and Baltimore but their schedule gets easier than this week. Pittsburgh's gets more difficult so I don't have as much value in their future weeks. Which is why I went with them here.
Straight Up Picks for all games
Daily Fantasy Lineup
For this I'll be using DraftKings Standard Competition rules. Week 1 is tough since it's a brand new year but here's my best shot:
Total Salary = $50,000
Quarterback: Phillip Rivers $6,000 - 19.82 Runningback: Devin Singletary $5,400 - 23.7
Runningback: Alvin Kamara $7,200 - 10.3
Wide Receiver: DeSean Jackson $4,900 - 6.6
Wide Receiver: Darius Slayton $4,700 - 31.2
Wide Receiver: DeAndre Hopkins $6,800 - 32.1 Tight End: Hunter Henry $5,300 -12.3 Flex: Keenan Allen $6,400 - 7.7 DST: Ravens $3,100 - 15
Total Points - 158.72
Surplus: $200
Optimal Lineup: Quarterback: Russel Wilson $7,000 - 34.78
Runningback: Josh Jacobs $6,800 - 35.9
Runningback: Nyheim Hines $4,000 - 27.3
Wide Receiver: Davante Adams $7,300 - 44.6
Wide Receiver: Calvin Ridley $6,100 - 36.9
Wide Receiver: Adam Thielen $6,700 - 34
Tight End:Goedert $4,100 - 27.1
FLEX: Darius Slayton $4,700 - 31.2
D/ST: Saints $2,400 - 17
Total Points - 288.78
Total Salary - $49,100
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